Coverage
An honest model and a fabricated one look identical.
The market has no way to separate them, so it prices them the same — which punishes the people doing real work and protects the ones who are not. Telling them apart requires something almost nobody kept: the price a model faced at the moment it committed, before any outcome was known. Reconstructing it afterward is not possible at any price. So we kept it, season after season, and this page is what that record now covers.
§ 01The capture
Held before the outcome was known.
Every game in the corpus is captured three times a day — at open, at the decision moment, and at close. The middle one is the whole point. A prediction is scored against the price that existed when it was made, not the one the market settled on hours later once the information had arrived.
Prices held at the decision moment
1,047,277
This is the number that makes independent validation possible. Open and close bracket it and make line movement measurable, but a claim about what a model knew can only be checked against what the market was showing when the model spoke.
At open
1,025,910
At close
1,099,860
§ 02The reach
Six sports. Four seasons. Every game, priced.
What a model can be scored against, by sport. A market held here can be validated to the standard; one that is not, cannot — and we would rather say so than score it loosely and call the result evidence.
- 39,058
- Games
- 65
- Sources
- 3,173,047
- Snapshots
- 2022–2026
- Seasons
| Sport | Games | Sources | Snapshots | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | 10,848 | 40 | 1,011,142 | 2022–2026 |
| nba | 5,023 | 43 | 485,296 | 2022–2026 |
| ncaab | 13,553 | 28 | 822,143 | 2022–2026 |
| ncaaf | 3,133 | 33 | 240,121 | 2022–2026 |
| nfl | 1,120 | 37 | 108,597 | 2022–2026 |
| nhl | 5,381 | 39 | 505,748 | 2022–2026 |
§ 03The sources
The sharp price and the price your customer got.
A model can be scored against what the market believed was true, and against what was actually available to bet — the same event, the same moment. The distance between those two numbers is where a desk carries risk, and holding both sides of it is what makes the comparison possible at all.
Sharp & exchange
Books competing on margin, and the exchanges. What the market believed was true.
- Pinnaclenflnbamlbnhlncaafncaab
- LowVignflnbamlbnhlncaafncaab
- BetOnline.agnflnbamlbnhlncaaf
- Matchbooknflnbanhl
- Betfair Exchange
- Circa Sports
US retail
Where the money is actually placed — the price a customer got, and the exposure that follows it onto the book.
- DraftKingsnflnbamlbnhlncaafncaab
- BetRiversnflnbamlbnhlncaafncaab
- FanDuelnflnbamlbnhlncaaf
- BetMGMnflnbamlbnhlncaaf
- Caesarsnflnbamlbnhlncaaf
- ESPN BET
- Hard Rock Bet
- Fanatics
Every source, every sport — 23 more
| Source | nfl | nba | mlb | nhl | ncaaf | ncaab |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full depth · 8 | ||||||
| BetUS | 100% | 100% | 99.6% | 100% | 95.7% | 80.5% |
| Bovada | 99.9% | 99.8% | 99.9% | 100% | 92% | 95.7% |
| 1xBet | 99.6% | 99.6% | 99.7% | 95.2% | 86.1% | 21.7% |
| Marathonbet | 99.8% | 92.9% | 99.1% | 98.6% | 86.9% | 84.8% |
| NordicBet | 97.7% | 96.8% | 96.4% | 85.4% | 92.8% | 82% |
| Betsson | 98.6% | 49.1% | 64.4% | 99.6% | 74.6% | 25.6% |
| William Hill (UK) | 74.9% | 100% | 95.6% | 51.3% | — | 14.5% |
| MyBookie.ag | 99.9% | 93.2% | 90% | 74.9% | 65.3% | 48.4% |
| Broad coverage · 15 | ||||||
| 888sport | 94.3% | 78.9% | 93.2% | 58.9% | 41.7% | 71.8% |
| betPARX | 76.3% | 78.2% | 79% | 78.8% | 78.2% | 73.8% |
| Everygame | 76.3% | 66.6% | 51.7% | 71.5% | 74% | 43.5% |
| coolbet | 76.1% | 50.3% | 63.7% | 53% | 69.7% | 0.8% |
| Fliff | 72.1% | 75.2% | 58.1% | 71.4% | 71.5% | 70.8% |
| GTbets | 72.2% | 61% | 67.4% | 60.4% | 61.3% | 49.6% |
| betclic | 62.1% | 26.1% | 58.3% | 69.3% | — | 0% |
| Bally Bet | 50.9% | 52.9% | 64% | 53.8% | 53.2% | 48.5% |
| WynnBET | 49% | 48.6% | 55.1% | 45.2% | 44% | 44.2% |
| Unibet (EU) | 40.8% | 51.7% | 50.7% | 25.8% | 36% | 52.4% |
| suprabets | — | 52.2% | — | 52.3% | — | — |
| tipico_de | 50.9% | 49.5% | 41.2% | 50.1% | — | — |
| Wind Creek | 50.9% | 50.5% | 42.5% | 44.1% | 50% | 48.1% |
| Unibet | 40.8% | 50.3% | 29.7% | 49.2% | 35.7% | 48% |
| PointsBet | 49.1% | 50% | 44% | 49.5% | 36.8% | 42.6% |
§ 04Seasonality
When each market is live.
Games held per calendar month across every season in the corpus. Shading is scaled within each sport, so a market at its own peak reads the same whether it plays a thousand games a year or thirteen thousand.
| Sport | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | mlb Jan: 0 games | mlb Feb: 0 games | mlb Mar: 214 games | mlb Apr: 1,741 games | mlb May: 1,968 games | mlb Jun: 1,947 games | mlb Jul: 1,735 games | mlb Aug: 1,601 games | mlb Sep: 1,508 games | mlb Oct: 133 games | mlb Nov: 1 games | mlb Dec: 0 games |
| nba | nba Jan: 891 games | nba Feb: 664 games | nba Mar: 906 games | nba Apr: 518 games | nba May: 102 games | nba Jun: 10 games | nba Jul: 0 games | nba Aug: 0 games | nba Sep: 0 games | nba Oct: 279 games | nba Nov: 855 games | nba Dec: 798 games |
| ncaab | ncaab Jan: 3,655 games | ncaab Feb: 3,282 games | ncaab Mar: 1,575 games | ncaab Apr: 32 games | ncaab May: 0 games | ncaab Jun: 0 games | ncaab Jul: 0 games | ncaab Aug: 0 games | ncaab Sep: 0 games | ncaab Oct: 0 games | ncaab Nov: 2,632 games | ncaab Dec: 2,377 games |
| ncaaf | ncaaf Jan: 26 games | ncaaf Feb: 0 games | ncaaf Mar: 0 games | ncaaf Apr: 0 games | ncaaf May: 0 games | ncaaf Jun: 0 games | ncaaf Jul: 0 games | ncaaf Aug: 138 games | ncaaf Sep: 881 games | ncaaf Oct: 906 games | ncaaf Nov: 1,049 games | ncaaf Dec: 133 games |
| nfl | nfl Jan: 124 games | nfl Feb: 3 games | nfl Mar: 0 games | nfl Apr: 0 games | nfl May: 0 games | nfl Jun: 0 games | nfl Jul: 0 games | nfl Aug: 0 games | nfl Sep: 226 games | nfl Oct: 265 games | nfl Nov: 246 games | nfl Dec: 256 games |
| nhl | nhl Jan: 868 games | nhl Feb: 530 games | nhl Mar: 927 games | nhl Apr: 605 games | nhl May: 100 games | nhl Jun: 12 games | nhl Jul: 0 games | nhl Aug: 0 games | nhl Sep: 0 games | nhl Oct: 625 games | nhl Nov: 846 games | nhl Dec: 868 games |
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