Outcomes by rule

Does the edge survive slicing?

Every deterministic rule a desk could cut the record with — by sport, market, confidence band, line range — scored against settled outcomes and ranked by the Wilson lower bound on ROI. Live record only, never blended with backtest. If the signal were one lucky cut, this page is where it would show.

Population: the full live record since Feb 2026, including picks settled before public anchoring. Reproducible from the published corpus.

Picks (log) × Wilson-LB ROI · every strategy plottedDrag to filter the table

mlbnbanflnhlncaabncaafall-sport

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104of 104 strategies match

Sport

Minimum picks

Include low-sample strategies

Leaderboard

1–100 of 104 · page 1 of 2

#	Rule	Sports
1	In MLB, favorites only, away only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	65	100.0%	4.0%	0.0%	+2.59u	0.00u
2	In MLB, away only, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	83	80.0%	1.9%	-2.1%	+1.59u	+1.00u
3	In every sport, favorites only, away only, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	75	80.0%	2.1%	-2.3%	+1.59u	+0.21u
4	In every sport, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	212	67.7%	0.1%	-3.1%	+0.28u	+5.00u
5	In MLB, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	176	66.7%	0.0%	-3.1%	+0.04u	+4.00u
6	In every sport, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	234	65.7%	-0.3%	-3.3%	-0.72u	+6.00u
7	In MLB, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	198	63.6%	-0.5%	-3.3%	-0.96u	+5.00u
8	In every sport, away only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	93	66.7%	0.6%	-3.5%	+0.59u	+1.21u
9	In every sport, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	141	65.5%	-0.9%	-5.3%	-1.31u	+5.00u
10	In every sport, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	137	65.5%	-1.0%	-5.5%	-1.31u	+5.00u
11	In every sport, away only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	52	66.7%	1.1%	-6.4%	+0.59u	+1.21u
12	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	119	67.7%	0.2%	-6.6%	+0.28u	+5.00u
13	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	118	67.7%	0.2%	-6.7%	+0.28u	+5.00u
14	In every sport, away only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	54	60.0%	0.2%	-6.8%	+0.10u	+1.21u
15	In every sport, away only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	52	60.0%	-0.4%	-7.3%	-0.21u	+2.00u
16	In MLB, home only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	115	58.8%	-2.2%	-7.4%	-2.55u	+4.47u
17	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	88	66.7%	0.0%	-7.4%	+0.04u	+4.00u
18	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	87	66.7%	0.0%	-7.5%	+0.04u	+4.00u
19	In MLB, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	111	58.8%	-2.3%	-7.7%	-2.55u	+4.47u
20	In every sport, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	71	66.7%	0.1%	-8.5%	+0.08u	+2.00u
21	In every sport, edge ≥ 0%, sort by edge descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	82	61.1%	-1.2%	-9.1%	-0.97u	+4.13u
22	In every sport, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	64	71.0%	2.8%	-9.2%	+1.77u	+5.00u
23	In every sport, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	64	71.0%	2.8%	-9.2%	+1.77u	+5.00u
24	In MLB, edge ≥ 0%, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	69	58.3%	-1.4%	-9.3%	-0.98u	+3.70u
25	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	61	71.0%	2.9%	-9.7%	+1.77u	+5.00u
26	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	60	71.0%	2.9%	-9.9%	+1.77u	+5.00u
27	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	88	65.5%	-1.5%	-10.0%	-1.31u	+5.00u
28	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	88	65.5%	-1.5%	-10.0%	-1.31u	+5.00u
29	In every sport, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	71	68.8%	1.1%	-10.1%	+0.77u	+5.00u
30	In every sport, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	71	68.8%	1.1%	-10.1%	+0.77u	+5.00u
31	In every sport, edge ≥ 0%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	61	64.7%	0.0%	-10.1%	+0.03u	+3.13u
32	In every sport, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	58	68.4%	-0.2%	-10.5%	-0.14u	+4.00u
33	In every sport, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	64	69.2%	0.3%	-10.5%	+0.17u	+5.00u
34	In every sport, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	64	69.2%	0.3%	-10.5%	+0.17u	+5.00u
35	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	65	68.8%	1.2%	-11.0%	+0.77u	+5.00u
36	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	65	68.8%	1.2%	-11.0%	+0.77u	+5.00u
37	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	61	69.2%	0.3%	-11.1%	+0.17u	+5.00u
38	In every sport, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	58	66.7%	-1.0%	-11.2%	-0.59u	+4.00u
39	In MLB, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	57	66.7%	-0.9%	-11.3%	-0.49u	+4.00u
40	In MLB, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	57	66.7%	-0.9%	-11.3%	-0.49u	+4.00u
41	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	60	69.2%	0.3%	-11.3%	+0.17u	+5.00u
42	In MLB, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	57	66.7%	0.1%	-11.6%	+0.04u	+4.00u
43	In MLB, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	57	66.7%	0.1%	-11.6%	+0.04u	+4.00u
44	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	60	65.0%	-0.7%	-11.6%	-0.39u	+4.00u
45	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	59	65.0%	-0.7%	-11.8%	-0.39u	+4.00u
46	In every sport, confidence ≥ 60%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	50	71.0%	3.5%	-11.9%	+1.77u	+5.00u
47	In every sport, confidence ≥ 60%, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	50	71.0%	3.5%	-11.9%	+1.77u	+5.00u
48	In every sport, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	58	68.0%	-0.5%	-12.4%	-0.32u	+5.00u
49	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	52	66.7%	-0.9%	-12.4%	-0.49u	+4.00u
50	In every sport, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	58	68.0%	-0.5%	-12.4%	-0.32u	+5.00u
51	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, edge ≥ 0%, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	50	64.7%	0.1%	-12.5%	+0.03u	+3.13u
52	In every sport, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	71	65.5%	-1.9%	-12.5%	-1.33u	+5.00u
53	In every sport, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	71	65.5%	-1.9%	-12.5%	-1.33u	+5.00u
54	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	51	66.7%	-1.0%	-12.7%	-0.49u	+4.00u
55	In MLB, favorites only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	56	54.5%	-3.2%	-12.7%	-1.78u	+3.59u
56	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	52	66.7%	0.1%	-12.8%	+0.04u	+4.00u
57	In every sport, favorites only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	64	56.3%	-3.0%	-12.9%	-1.92u	+4.00u
58	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	51	66.7%	0.1%	-13.0%	+0.04u	+4.00u
59	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	64	58.8%	-4.0%	-13.4%	-2.55u	+4.47u
60	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb	64	58.8%	-4.0%	-13.4%	-2.55u	+4.47u
61	In every sport, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	64	53.3%	-3.8%	-13.6%	-2.41u	+5.00u
62	In every sport, confidence ≥ 60%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	59	67.7%	0.5%	-13.6%	+0.28u	+5.00u
63	In every sport, confidence ≥ 60%, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	59	67.7%	0.5%	-13.6%	+0.28u	+5.00u
64	In every sport, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	59	66.7%	-1.4%	-13.6%	-0.81u	+5.00u
65	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	53	68.0%	-0.6%	-13.6%	-0.32u	+5.00u
66	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	53	68.0%	-0.6%	-13.6%	-0.32u	+5.00u
67	In every sport, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	59	66.7%	-1.4%	-13.6%	-0.81u	+5.00u
68	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	65	65.5%	-2.0%	-13.7%	-1.33u	+5.00u
69	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	65	65.5%	-2.0%	-13.7%	-1.33u	+5.00u
70	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	52	68.0%	-0.5%	-13.8%	-0.27u	+5.00u
71	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	52	68.0%	-0.5%	-13.8%	-0.27u	+5.00u
72	In every sport, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	58	66.7%	-1.4%	-13.9%	-0.81u	+5.00u
73	In every sport, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	58	66.7%	-1.4%	-13.9%	-0.81u	+5.00u
74	In MLB, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	52	62.5%	-3.0%	-14.0%	-1.55u	+4.00u
75	In MLB, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	52	62.5%	-3.0%	-14.0%	-1.55u	+4.00u
76	In every sport, favorites only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	69	57.1%	-4.2%	-14.4%	-2.92u	+4.50u
77	In MLB, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	51	54.5%	-4.9%	-14.6%	-2.47u	+3.44u
78	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	55	66.7%	-1.5%	-14.7%	-0.81u	+5.00u
79	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, home only, sort by implied probability descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	55	66.7%	-1.5%	-14.7%	-0.81u	+5.00u
80	In MLB, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	50	60.0%	-2.8%	-14.7%	-1.37u	+3.18u
81	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	63	60.9%	-3.4%	-14.8%	-2.17u	+4.00u
82	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	63	60.9%	-3.4%	-14.8%	-2.17u	+4.00u
83	In every sport, edge ≥ 0%, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	51	61.1%	-1.9%	-14.8%	-0.97u	+4.13u
84	In every sport, edge ≥ 0%, sort by implied probability descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	51	61.1%	-1.9%	-14.8%	-0.97u	+4.13u
85	In every sport, edge ≥ 0%, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	52	53.8%	-3.5%	-14.9%	-1.83u	+4.00u
86	In MLB, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	56	50.0%	-5.0%	-15.1%	-2.78u	+4.59u
87	In every sport, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	58	61.9%	-3.8%	-15.1%	-2.20u	+4.00u
88	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	53	66.7%	-1.5%	-15.3%	-0.81u	+5.00u
89	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	53	66.7%	-1.5%	-15.3%	-0.81u	+5.00u
90	In every sport, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	58	60.0%	-4.5%	-15.8%	-2.64u	+4.00u
91	In every sport, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	59	64.3%	-3.1%	-15.8%	-1.81u	+5.00u
92	In every sport, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	59	64.3%	-3.1%	-15.8%	-1.81u	+5.00u
93	In MLB, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	52	58.8%	-4.9%	-16.6%	-2.55u	+4.47u
94	In MLB, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	52	58.8%	-4.9%	-16.6%	-2.55u	+4.47u
95	In MLB, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 5 per day.	mlb	51	53.8%	-5.9%	-16.6%	-3.03u	+3.99u
96	In every sport, edge ≥ 2%, sort by confidence descending, take every eligible pick per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	51	45.5%	-5.5%	-16.8%	-2.82u	+4.06u
97	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	55	64.3%	-3.3%	-17.0%	-1.81u	+5.00u
98	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, home only, sort by confidence descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	55	64.3%	-3.3%	-17.0%	-1.81u	+5.00u
99	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	54	62.5%	-4.1%	-17.2%	-2.23u	+4.00u
100	In every sport, confidence ≥ 55%, favorites only, home only, sort by edge descending, take top 3 per sport per day.	mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, ncaab, ncaaf	54	62.5%	-4.1%	-17.2%	-2.23u	+4.00u

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